OpenAI GPT-4 revenue estimate

If the rumours about GPT-4 is true. GPT-4 is a Mixture of Experts of 8x 222B parameter models. We know that GPT-3.5-turbo is 175B parameters and is at 0.002$ per 1k token. 0.002 / 175 is 0.00001142857. Which means a OpenAI model is at 0.00001142857$ per 1B parameters. Then we do 0.00001142857 * 222 * 8 = 0.02029714032$. This is a rough estimate of GPT-4 base cost. I didn’t even remove the profit OpenAI earns from the gpt-3.5-turbo price. Anyone got a better estimate?

Just did a google search and it said " OpenAI’s Revenue Crossed $1.3 Billion Annualized Rate, CEO Tells Staff."

So I’d go with $1.3B revenue per year :rofl:


5.4 million ChatGPT Plus x $240 year


Incredible API token consumption


mandatory API prepay

You decide which is bringing in the money…

Based on what I’m seeing, it’s ~$500 million from ChatGPT and ~$800 million from API. Based on a modest ~1% conversion rate of (Free–>Plus) ChatGPT users (pool of ~180 million users).

Sounds like they’ll be able to pay off the $1b to Microsoft soon!

In all seriousness, I wonder if they get a cut of Microsoft revenue too via Azure, Bing, etc. Although Bing is a loss…

Another interesting breakdown would be small-medium devs vs enterprise…

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I wonder about this too. I see so many AI commercials on TV these days, not OpenAI, luring in those enterprise companies.

I imagine enterprise is coming online, but is slowly fading away to private models. They are a stubborn bunch! :money_mouth_face:

So OpenAI pays Microsoft for Azure but does Microsoft also pays OpenAI for GPT-4? Are they using it for Github CoPilot? Last I heard, they are losing on average $20 per user and as much as $80 for heavy users per month, I think.

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I think any money to/from Microsoft is gravy, but insignificant.

When I read between the lines here:

Microsoft and OpenAI extend partnership - The Official Microsoft Blog.

What I see is that Microsoft is trying to build their cloud inference business, by betting on the current top horse models coming from OpenAI.

It’s an amicable business partnership, with one betting their infrastructure will win, and the other betting their models will win.

Who really wins? I think we all do!