You don’t need to delete your posts… I’m not offended by ur constructive criticism. I was just saying ur way of writing was a bit off-putting.
Sorry I missed this. Yes, those topics are largely unpredictable with any level of accuracy. Furthermore, the world is not just an algorithm to be optimized.
I think you might have miscontrued what I was saying. Yes I agree weather, volcanic eruptions, large large large natural systems are “quite unpredictable”. In fact, vast arrays of studies show this to be the case. Chaos rules, and the butterfly effect is extremely problematic when small initial conditions change. HOWEVER, recent advances in fluid dynamics modelling will solve some of these issues. DMD (Dynamic Mode Decomposition see https://youtu.be/sQvrK8AGCAo) was used extensively for fluid dynamics, climate change modelling, mouse brain modelling and so on. The new ODE45 intertwined with MLPs seem fascinating (see https://youtu.be/jltgNGt8Lpg). Likewise Multiscale predictions (see https://youtu.be/Jfl3dIlSTrU)
I once again AGREE with you that large scale natural systems are very very very very very hard to predict.
In all cases, you had high quality data handed to you. The real world is messy.
Oh no nononooo. The data was MESSY AS HELL!!! We had to predict rainfall patterns in Pakistan in collaboration with UNSW researchers, since large downpours caused flash flooding causing death. The data was ATTROCIOUS! People accidentally put data in the WRONG columns, averaged the results up wrong, whole swathes of data from regions were wrong, data averaging across time didn’t match with the averages the people gave etc. It was a nightmare.
Predicting Zika Virus outbreaks in collab with the National Health Medical Research Council and EpiWatch was also very nightmarish. Data exists yes, for cases of Zika. But the issue was to predict the ONSET of an outbreak. So what data do we use? We used Google Trends in multiple languages for every state in Brazil. But it was still very weak. So we had to devise a new model entirely from scratch called the Markovian SIRD model, where we took into account transport links, airplane routes, road links, population, mosquito population distributions, temperature, humidity, etc.
That’s an arbitrary definition that you just invented. The definition of AGI is that it “can perform any intellectual task that any human can”. Can humans predict the future with extreme accuracy? No they cannot. You’ve arbitrarily set the goalpost for AGI to something that is literally impossible. Humans can, however, predict the future based on passed experience. We do this all the time when we predict what word someone is going to type ____. Did you guess “next”?
Ok I agree. I accidentally conflated AGI and ASI. Superintelligence might not even be able to answer future prediction questions, although I would really want it to. AGI fine, using a baseline definition, AGI should do everything a human can do intelluctually (let’s discount physical movements for now). I would even say an AGI should just do 51% better than the AVERAGE human, and I would be happy. Yes I agree a basic AGI system based on say the Mixture of Experts approach should be able to exist in the next few years. It seems reasonable.
Yes,itsoundslikeweagree.Ijustdon’tunderstandwhyyou’rewastingyourtimeandtalentonthisproblemthen.Don’tyouthinkthattechgiantslikeIBM,Amazon,andMicrosoftwouldbeworkingonthisproblemwithconsiderablymoreresourcesthanyou?
Because it’s what makes me not sleep at night!!! I LOVE what I do? Is that a good enough reason? I super extremely just super duper love what I do everyday, and I’m just happy I’m trying to make a good difference to the world. The financial predictions - I agree competition is rife. But so? My family is damn waiting for me to manage their funds. Likewise, life expectancy, disease, flood, fire risks, house prices, heart disease etc prevalance - these might exist ok yes. But once again - I’m waiting to use it. I want to know how long I live. I want to know how to improve optimally. I want to know what factors I need to look out for. My family has a long history of hypertension, stomach cancer and my grandparents siblings have alzhemiers. I want to know how to live longer. Don’t we all?
At the end of the day, I understand fully and I agree with you - “but isn’t OpenAI, Microsoft, Deepmind, governments from the US, China doing this?” Yes I had that mantra before. But it doesn’t faze me. Even if other large corporations will attempt it, I’m sure what Moonshot does will help the world. Even if we’re stamped and trampled on, I want to do what’s right for the world, and not regret any decision I make when I die. I believe that we’re aiming for the stars, and it’ll be tough - super tough. But I want to press on!!!
Anyways thanks though @daveshapautomator for ur precious time. I wholeheartedly thank you for actually making you write a lot, and I appreciate it. Obvisously some rephrasement might be necessary, but in general your criticism is just and reasonable.
Yikes I wrote too much.