This is almost certainly the case.
ChatGPT as a platform is definitely a weird beast. I don’t doubt there will be some GPTs that offer an increased value for certain niche use-cases compared to base GPT-4, but they’re going to be exceptionally few and far between.
Most—but by no means all—GPTs that I’ve seen are pretty lazy efforts, with much more attention paid to trying to “secure” the instructions than to actually creating something interesting.
Beyond that, the vast majority of GPTs appear easy enough to replicate even without accessing their instructions, because it’s just not that hard to deduce the general gist of their instructions.
Even the GPTs making use of external knowledge don’t add particularly too much value as, again, it’s not terribly difficult to identify the types of documents that the model would need access to in order to perform its job.
For most of these, the qualitative difference between any dozen attempting to do the same thing just isn’t going to be enough of a differentiator to allow any one to really stand out.
There will, of course, be some exceptions for those GPTs that have obscure, specialized, or proprietary knowledge bases or some kind of uniquely clever instruction set, but that’s absolutely not the case for almost any of the GPTs out there.
The only GPTs I’ve seen that add any real, true, value over stock GPT-4 make pretty heavy use of actions that extend the capabilities of the models in new, novel, and interesting ways that aren’t easy to replicate—particularly those that bring together multiple actions for different services or do clever things calling other language models or specialized tools to super-charge the planning and reasoning capabilities of GPT-4.
There may be a few flukes that go viral for the lulz, but I would be absolutely shocked if more than 500 or so GPTs ever made more than a few bucks a month.
But, I didn’t know, I would be exceedingly happy to be wrong. I know there are those at OpenAI who are very invested in the idea of ChatGPT as a platform and want developers to be able to make real money from it, and they know way more about it than I do.